Our staff’s best bets for Raptors vs. Heat, Nets vs. Grizzlies, more (October 24)
NBA Opening Week is behind us, but tonight’s busy Monday slate is full of possibilities. Tonight’s schedule features eight games, with some really fun games including a game in the west between the Nuggets and the Trail Blazers on NBA TV.
Our NBA analysts focus on three more games on the slate and see prop and money-line value on a road favorite. Dive into their analysis and best bets for Monday night below.
NBA odds and picks
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
Joe Dellera: Scottie Barnes suffered a pretty serious ankle injury against the Miami Heat on Saturday and although he’s officially listed as questionable, he’s expected to miss “some time” according to Raptors head coach Nick Nurse.
While the player who slips into the starting lineup and sees his playing time increase is Precious Achiuwa, the starter who stands to benefit the most is Pascal Siakam. Due to Barnes’ questionable tag, we get a great line on this assist prop for Siakam.
Siakam sees his stats and usage increase without Barnes on the ground. In five games without him last season, Siakam averaged 25.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game and he just recorded 23/8/9 against Miami on Saturday when Barnes came off after only 13 minutes.
I think that line is criminally low considering he’s erased 4.5 in 20 of his last 30 games regardless of Barnes’ status, including averaging 6.8 assists against Miami between this season and the last with totals of 10, 6, 4, 5 and 9 .
I’m going to escalate this and prefer to call the juice on the baseline of -160 and then grab alternates at 7+ (+250 Bet365) and 10+ (+1125) with a pinch on a triple double built at (+2000 ). FanDuel also has these bets but at 8+ (+290) and 10 (+700) but there is obviously less value there.
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Sam McQuillan: A matchup between two of the worst projected teams in the league is the perfect opportunity to bet on a volume blue chipper points prop.
Jalen Green is coming off the second-worst shooting performance in his last 12 games, scoring 22 points on 31% shooting against the Bucks. The last time he shot so badly, he followed that up with 41 points in his next game.
I expect a similar comeback performance against a Jazz team that gave up 28 points to CJ McCollum in overtime last night and 30 to Anthony Edwards the game before.
Utah backcourt Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson rank 54th and 112th in defensive rankings among starters this year. And any other player the Jazz could have stuck on Green last year is playing on another team this season.
I expect their porous license defense to be even worse in a back-to-back game and the third game of a road trip. Monday night should be the Jalen Green show.
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: The Utah Jazz take on the Rockets in Houston, in what everyone in preseason thought would be a battle from the basement.
Instead, the Jazz are 3-0 ATS to start the season. The Rockets are exactly where we expected: pretty fun, but not very good. As tempted as I am by the Jazz to make a 4-0 start to the season, I’m looking at the total instead.
Houston and Utah are middle of the road at Pace, 12th and 14th respectively. And yet, their match tally is 232.
The reason for such a high total is likely due to Houston’s horrible defense this year. They’re last in the league in defensive rating (120.8), but the flip side is their terrible offense, which ranks 20th in offensive rating (108.4) according to NBA.com.
Utah, meanwhile, ranks sixth in offense (115.6), but 10th in defense (107.1). However, we still haven’t seen the Jazz face a bad team this season. So far they have defeated the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Pelicans in OT last night. I think we could see a low-effort spot for the Jazz and a game in which their offensive effort wanes.
The total also saw plenty of money on the underside and was bet against the opening total of 233, according to the Action PRO report. The minuses get 77% of the money, but only 41% of the bets.
I like under bets, but only up to 231 because I don’t trust the Rockets’ poor defense.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Chris Baker: The Grizzlies don’t deserve as much respect against a much more talented Nets team. Memphis currently ranks 28th in adjusted net rating while Brooklyn is 15th.
Brooklyn has played the toughest schedule of opposing defenses so far, but they should be able to rack up some points against this Memphis defense that ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions despite having a relatively easy schedule so far. . Brooklyn has struggled on offense so far, but they’ve played the toughest schedule of opposing defenses this year.
New Orleans and Toronto are among the only teams that actually have the defensive length and talent to take on Kevin Durant. The Grizzlies’ defensive talent is completely lacking without Dillon Brooks, Zaire Williams and Jaren Jackson Jr. in their roster.
The Nets should be able to get the hit they want on offense with Ja Morant on Kyrie and guys like Santi Aldama, David Roddy and Desmond Bane on KD. I also think Ben Simmons has the length and defensive IQ to disrupt Ja Morant’s pace.
The Nets also come into this game after two days off while Memphis is coming off a 40 blowout on the road against Dallas on Saturday night. Expect Brooklyn to play well with extra rest and preparation and pick up the win on the road against an injury-riddled Memphis team.